Assessments

Israel

Palestinian Territories

A picture taken on May 6, 2024, shows smoke billowing following a bombardment east of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

If Hamas doesn't agree to a more favorable cease-fire deal, Israel will likely expand its push into Gaza's southernmost city at the risk of exacerbating domestic and international blowback.

With the Capture of a Border Crossing, Israel's Rafah Operation Has Begun

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

An aerial photo taken on Sept. 25, 2022, shows solar panels at the Sao Mai solar energy plant in Vietnam’s An Giang province. 

Economics

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

Politics

Several ASEAN countries are on track to develop substantial renewable power capacities in the short term, but technical, political and financial constraints, coupled with incentives to keep burning fossil fuels, will impede long-term decarbonization goals.

The Challenges Facing Southeast Asia's Decarbonization

Snapshots

United Kingdom

Ballots are counted during local elections in Thornaby, England, on May 3, 2024. 

The outcome of the votes in England and Wales confirms the ruling Conservative Party will likely perform poorly in the general election, but also that the opposition Labour Party will face competition from smaller parties.

What To Make of the Local U.K. Election Results

South Africa

South Africa's May general election will be the country's most competitive vote in 30 years, testing the dominance of the ruling African National Congress.

2024 Elections: South Africa

Chad

Panama

China

France

Serbia

Hungary

Russia

Panamanian presidential candidate Jose Raul Mulino on May 1, 2024, in Panama City. Panamanians will vote May 5 to select their next president and all 71 members of the National Assembly.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Panama Holds General Elections, Xi Visits Europe

Europe

Chinese President Xi Jinping is seen between the Chinese and French national flags in Beijing on Jan. 9, 2018. 

During the rare visit, the Chinese president will seek to ease EU trade tensions and secure Beijing's economic presence and influence in Central and Eastern Europe.

What To Expect During Xi's Trip to Europe

United States

Iran

Saudi Arabia

Yemen

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on April 29 at a Joint Ministerial Meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council-U.S. Strategic Partnership in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Riyadh will continue to progressively advance diplomatic relations with Israel and deepen defense ties with the United States, while maintaining its cautious outreach to Iran.

Riyadh will continue to progressively advance diplomatic relations with Israel and deepen defense ties with the United States, while maintaining its cautious outreach to Iran.

Assessing Saudi Arabia's Foreign Policy During the Israel-Hamas War and Beyond

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Haiti

A Haitian police officer controls the area around the country's National Palace in Port-au-Prince on May 1, 2024.

The reversal in the transitional council's appointment of a new prime minister highlights political tensions within the governing body, indicating risks of further political instability and violence in the coming months.

Disputes Over a Prime Minister Appointment Bode Ill for Haiti's Stability

Columns

On Geopolitics

A globe statue is seen at dusk.

As the international system becomes more multipolar, global norms will be increasingly tested, eroded and redefined, creating a more uncertain and volatile world.

Can International Norms Survive in a Multipolar World?

Perhaps the one area where the President and former President broadly agree is the national security implications of technology policy: Biden has maintained and expanded many of Trump's first-term restrictions on China's access to sophisticated American technology, and both share a revitalized interest in "reshoring" high-tech manufacturing. While a second Biden administration would put a greater emphasis on working in concert with America's allies on technology policy and would be more open to "friendshoring" key tech production, a second Trump term would be more likely to "go it alone" and would be far more transactional with friend and foe alike.

Trump vs. Biden: The Implications for U.S. Tech Regulation

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 2, 2024

Latest

The skyline of Johannesburg, South Africa, is seen on April 19, 2023.

The government that emerges from the May 29 election will probably fail to address the structural factors holding back South Africa's economy, but a financial crisis remains unlikely for now.

Assessing South Africa's Post-Election Economic Outlook

Social Issues

For the first time in a U.S. presidential election, Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) policy will become a prominent point of contention between the two candidates and their parties. 

The Impact of the U.S. Presidential Election on Corporate ESG Programs

Kyrgyzstan

Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov on Dec. 15, 2023, in in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan.

Democratic backsliding will likely complicate government efforts to attract Western investment, but could portend improved relations with neighbors and Russia and China.

Gauging the Implications of Kyrgyzstan's Democratic Backsliding

Colombia

Colombian President Gustavo Petro participates in a march for International Workers Day in Bogota, Colombia, on May 1, 2024. 

The ongoing scandals and growing public dissatisfaction with the government will prolong political volatility and policy uncertainty in Colombia, while increasing the risk of social unrest.

What Another Corruption Scandal Means for Colombia's Fragile Government

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) reservoirs are seen at the Yamal LNG plant in the port of Sabetta, located on the Yamal Peninsula in northwest Siberia, Russia.

The restrictions would further complicate Russia's efforts to increase LNG production, while having only a limited impact on the EU's natural gas supplies.

The Implications of the EU's Proposed Sanctions on Russian LNG

Morocco

Moroccan Air Force mechanics examine an F-16 fighter jet at an airbase in Ben Guerir, about 58 kilometers north of Marrakesh, Morocco, on June 14, 2021. 

Pressure from its pro-Palestinian population will not deter Morocco from using Israeli technology to expand its domestic weapons capabilities, as Rabat seeks to catch up to Algeria’s military power and position itself as an arms exporter.

Despite the Gaza War, Morocco-Israel Defense Ties Look Set to Deepen

Moldova

People hold Moldovan national flags as they gather outside the presidential palace in Chisinau on Dec. 14, 2023, to celebrate the European Council's decision to open accession talks with Moldova.

In the lead-up to the October presidential election and referendum on Moldova's EU integration, Moscow and its Moldovan political allies will step up their efforts to destabilize the country's pro-European government.

In Moldova, Two Key Votes Portend More Pro-Russian Political Agitation

Tit-for-tat military exchanges between Iran and its proxies against Israel will likely continue, with a constant risk of escalation.

Israel Launches Measured Attack on Iran, but Escalation Risks Remain

People attend the funeral procession in Tehran, Iran, on April 5, 2024, for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in a recent Israeli strike in Syria.

Israel and Iran have shown they can stand on the brink and still step back. But future confrontations will run the risk of derailing strategic logic in their behavior, potentially trapping them in a war neither wants.

For Israel and Iran, April's Exchange Ushers In a New Era of Deterrence

Australia

Fiji

Japan

New Zealand

North Korea

South Korea

India

A 3D rendering of Southeast Asia from space at night with city lights showing Southeast Asian cities in Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia.

In the Asia-Pacific, countries are increasingly pursuing complex networks of political, economic and defense ties as part of a burgeoning "multi-alignment" strategy that seeks to avoid U.S.-China strategic competition.

Examining 'Multi-Alignment' in the Asia-Pacific

U.S.-China Relations

An F-35C Lightning launches Jan. 6, 2022, off the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. 

Political, financial and economic constraints will continue to limit the U.S. government's flexibility in adjusting spending, resulting in an ongoing rise in federal debt.

The Ongoing Rise of U.S. Debt Amid Geopolitical, Financial and Economic Constraints

Ultra-Orthodox Jews visit Israeli army soldiers to show their support as they deploy at a position near the border with Gaza in southern Israel on Oct. 11, 2023. 

Whether Israel finally scraps its controversial draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews will hinge largely on the evolution of the country's relationship with its neighbors and rivals in the years ahead.

In Israel, Wartime Realities Renew Scrutiny Over Ultra-Orthodox Military Exemptions

Ukraine

Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners fire in the direction of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region on Feb. 20, 2024. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's upcoming address to the nation offer an ideal occasion to again consider how Russia has and will continue to change as a result of the war.

The Ukraine War's Impact on Russia, Two Years On

Mexico

In the coming years, rising nationalist and anti-globalization ideologies will likely lead to heightened geopolitical competition and trade/technological fragmentation that will impact relations between countries.

Can Globalization Survive in an Increasingly Fragmented World?

A Palestinian demonstrator waves a flag during confrontations with Israeli troops Jan. 6, 2023, in the West Bank village of Kfar Qaddum, near the Jewish settlement of Kedumim. A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

The Distant Prospect of a Palestinian State

Angola

Angola reached a deal with the China Development Bank to release cash held as collateral in an escrow account to ensure the country can meet its interest repayments, Angolan Finance Minister Vera Daves de Sousa told the Financial Times on May 8. 

Angola: Government Reaches Deal With China Development Bank on Debt Interest Payments

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Uganda

High-level military officials from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda agreed to increase funding for joint counterterrorism efforts against the Islamic State-backed Allied Democratic Forces, or ADF, Radio Okapi reported on May 8.

Congo, Uganda: Armies To Allocate More Funding To Boost Operations Against ADF

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi outlined new goals to increase farmers' incomes by 50% by 2030, Reuters reported on May 8.

India: Modi Formulates New Goals To Increase Farmers' Incomes

The U.S. Commerce Department will hear testimony on whether to reclassify Vietnam as a "market economy" from its current designation as a "non-market economy with heavy state influence," Reuters reported on May 8.

Vietnam, U.S.: Commerce Department to Review Vietnam’s ‘Non-Market Economy’ Status 

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced during the Los Angeles Declaration on Migration and Protection ministerial meeting in Guatemala City, Guatemala, that the United States will provide $578 million in aid to Latin American countries to help combat surging regional migration, according to a State Department fact sheet issued on May 7. 

U.S., Latin America: U.S. Announces $578M in Aid To Combat Migration

The European Union Mission to Chad expressed concern at the exclusion of 2,900 civil society election observers from the first round of Chad's May 6 presidential election, Le Monde reported May 7.

Chad: EU Decries Exclusion of Election Observers From Presidential Election As Counting Is Underway

Science & Technology

China's industry ministry released new draft guidelines for the electric vehicle battery industry that will "Guide enterprises to reduce manufacturing projects that simply expand production capacity," as well as "strengthen technological innovation, improve product quality, and reduce production costs," Bloomberg reported on May 8. 

China: EV Battery Guidelines To Address Quality, Not Western Overcapacity, Concerns

Finland

Sweden

Norway

A heavy-lift helicopter operated by the U.S. military flies over a tank in Setermoen, Norway, during a military exercise involving NATO troops and partner countries on March 22, 2022. 

The U.S.'s new pacts with Sweden, Finland and Denmark signal its intent to play a key role in transforming NATO's approach to securing its northern flank against Russia.

The Significance of U.S. Defense Cooperation Agreements in Northern Europe

Ukrainian servicemen fire with a 105mm howitzer toward Russian positions near the city of Bakhmut on March 8, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine faces immense challenges in 2024 and 2025 that only increased Western support and a new strategy that brings the war inside Russia would be capable of overcoming. 

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: Ukraine's Challenge in 2024 and Beyond

The United States paused a shipment of around 3,000 heavy bombs to Israel over concern that Israel might use them in the country's offensive in Gaza's southern city of Rafah, ABC News reported on May 8, citing a Pentagon official.

U.S., Israel: U.S. Holds Up Arms Delivery Over Israel's Rafah Offensive

Cyber

The U.S. Commerce Department is weighing new export restrictions on closed source or proprietary artificial intelligence models to China, Reuters reported on May 8.

U.S., China: Washington Weighs Restrictions on AI Model Exports to China

Vladimir Putin was inaugurated for a fifth term as Russia's president at a ceremony at the Kremlin that was boycotted by the United States and only attended by six of 27 EU member states (France, Hungary, Slovakia, Greece, Malta and Cyprus), Reuters reported on May 7. 

Russia: Putin Inaugurated for Fifth Term as Opposition Calls His Election Illegitimate

Media

Turkey

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

How Great Power Competition Is Changing the Geopolitics of Mongolia

For Moscow, soft power is more about sowing discord among the Kremlin's enemies than singing Russia's praises.

Rather than trumpet Russia's praises overseas, Moscow's propaganda machine is focused more on undermining the Kremlin's enemies.

Assessing South Africa's Post-Election Economic Outlook

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Angola: Government Reaches Deal With China Development Bank on Debt Interest Payments

Congo, Uganda: Armies To Allocate More Funding To Boost Operations Against ADF

India: Modi Formulates New Goals To Increase Farmers' Incomes

Vietnam, U.S.: Commerce Department to Review Vietnam’s ‘Non-Market Economy’ Status

U.S., Latin America: U.S. Announces $578M in Aid To Combat Migration

Chad: EU Decries Exclusion of Election Observers From Presidential Election As Counting Is Underway

China: EV Battery Guidelines To Address Quality, Not Western Overcapacity, Concerns

U.S., Israel: U.S. Holds Up Arms Delivery Over Israel's Rafah Offensive

U.S., China: Washington Weighs Restrictions on AI Model Exports to China

Russia: Putin Inaugurated for Fifth Term as Opposition Calls His Election Illegitimate

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